Meeting Future Energy Needs. Courtesy General Electic.

According to the world’ largest publicly traded company, ExxonMobil, meeting energy demands in 2040 won’t be all that different from today.

Well that’s not entirely true, because as you will read below, we’re going to be getting a whole lot more efficient at managing the energy we use.

The full report, which you can find here is in-depth and fascinating, but as far as snap-shots go, this simple bar-chart does a good job of sumarising the situation. Most important to note is the fact that Oil and Gas usage will remain dominant, showing sizable increases. Exxon’s projections for renewable energy sources such as Wind, Solar, Biofuels, Hydro and Geo are rather pessimistic. They will increase, but barely enough to impact change. Only coal, which will peak in 2025, will decrease. These figures account for a gobal energy demand which will be 30 percent higher in three decades to come.

Given that Exxon is the world’s largest (non state-owned) producer of oil and gas, perhaps these projections aren’t all that surprising. But for those of you concerned about our planet’s ecological health – they should certainly be alarming.

image: Exxon

More useful Stats on energy usage and emissions from Exxon:

  • Energy demand growth will slow as economies mature, efficiency gains accelerate and population growth moderates.
  • In the countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) we see energy use remaining essentially flat. Non OECD energy demand will grow by close to 60 percent.
  • By 2040, electricity generation will account for more than 40 percent of global energy consumption.
  • Oil will remain the most widely used fuel, but natural gas will grow fast enough to overtake coal for the number-two position.
  • For both oil and natural gas, an increasing share of global supply will come from unconventional sources, such as those from shale formations. Demand for natural gas will rise by more than 60 percent through 2040.
  • Demand for coal will peak and begin a gradual decline.
  • Gains in efficiency through energy-saving practices and technologies will temper demand growth and curb emissions.
  • Global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will grow slowly, then level off around 2030.

Apparently this all will be happening alongside some interesting global Demographic changes. The following graph from the World Bank shows that OECD’s population will grow at a very low rate over the coming three decades and begin to taper off with an increasing ageing population. China’s demographic changes will be very similar and populations will perhaps even decrease. The major growth will come from India and the biggie – Africa with a vast 800 million increase.

Demographics by Region according to the World Bank. Source. Exxon's '2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040'

As GDP for both OECD and Non-OECDs increases, global energy demand will be placed under pressure. Interestingly, OECD Energy demans will not actually increase dramatically to reflect this, but will rather flatline due to improvements in energy efficiency brought about by ongoing technological improvement, changing management practices or C02 reduction policies. Growth in energy use would be

“more than four times the 30% projection were it not for expected gains in energy efficiency across the world’s economies”.

Increased efficiency will have a major impact on Non OECD countries, but the gains will not be enough to offset the rise in energy demand, which ExxonMobil estimates at almost 60%. Such growth refers after-all to five-sixths of the global population having major living standards improvements and great prosperity.

GDP & Energy Demand Projections of OECD and Non-OECDs. Source: ExxonMobil.

Editor’s Note: What concerns do you see in these projections? What chances do we have to increase use of renewables beyond Exxon’s projections.